Arctic Sea Ice Outlook
The SEARCH (Study of Environmental ARctic CHange) Sea Ice Outlook is an international effort to provide a community-wide summary of the expected September arctic sea ice minimum. Monthly reports released throughout the summer synthesize community estimates of the current state and expected minimum of sea ice-at both a pan-arctic and regional scale. The Sea Ice Outlook is organized by the SEARCH Project Office at the Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS) and is supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The GMAO contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook is derived from our global seasonal forecasts. Seasonal coupled forecasts are conducted by the GMAO on an experimental basis in near real time with the GEOS-5 AOGCM. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Seasonal forecasts are initialized with GEOS-iODAS, MERRA-Land, and MERRA atmospheric fields. Forecasts are initialized every 5 days, with 10 ensemble members initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The ensemble members are generated by coupled model breeding and by independent perturbations in the ocean and atmosphere.
